Survival Time Analysis of Hypertension Patients Using Parametric Models

Main Article Content

Markos Abiso Erango
Kabtamu Tolosie Gergiso
Sultan Hussen Hebo

Abstract

Background: Hypertension is a worldwide public-health challenge and one of a leading modifiable risk factor for cardiovascular disease and death.

Aims: The aim of this study was compare parameter estimations using both Bayesian and classical approaches and to detect out potential factors that affects survival probability of hypertension patient’s under follow up.

Materials and Methods: A simple random sampling technique was used to select 430 patients among a total of 2126 hypertension patients who had been under follow up at Yekatit-12 Hospital in Ethiopia from January 2013 to January 2019. Parametric distributions: Exponential, Weibull, Lognormal and loglogistic are studied to analysis survival probabilities of the patients in both Bayesian and classical approaches. The model selection criteria are employed to identify the model with best fit to the data. Bayesian estimation approach was smaller deviance information criteria as compare to classical estimation approaches for the current data set.

Results and Conclusion: The analysis Bayesian Weibull results indicate that the baseline age of the patient, gender, family history of hypertension, tobacco use, alcohol use, khat intake, blood cholesterol level of the patient, hypertension disease stage, adherence to the treatment and related disease were significantly associated with survival time of hypertension patients. Patients with raised blood Cholesterol level at baseline tend to have shorter survival time as compare to one with normal blood cholesterol level at baseline. Society and all stakeholders should be aware of the consequences of these factors which can influence the survival time of hypertension patients.

Keywords:
Bayesian approach, classical approaches, estimation methods, hypertension, survival probability.

Article Details

How to Cite
Erango, M. A., Gergiso, K. T., & Hebo, S. H. (2019). Survival Time Analysis of Hypertension Patients Using Parametric Models. Advances in Research, 20(2), 1-10. https://doi.org/10.9734/air/2019/v20i230155
Section
Original Research Article

References

World Health Organization. A global brief on hypertension: world health day; 2013. [Internet].

Kelly BB, Fuster V, editors. Promoting cardiovascular health in the developing world: a critical challenge to achieve global health. National Academies Press; 2010. Cooper RS, Amoah AG, Mensah GA. High blood pressure: the foundation for epidemic cardiovascular disease in African populations. Ethnicity and Disease. 2003; 13(2; SUPP/2):S2-48.

Ezzati M, Lopez AD, Rodgers A, Vander Hoorn S, Murray CJ, Comparative Risk Assessment Collaborating Group. Selected major risk factors and global and regional burden of disease. The Lancet. 2002;360(9343):1347-60.

Bygbjerg IC. Double burden of noncommunicable and infectious diseases in developing countries. Science. 2012; 337(6101):1499-501.

Opie LH, Seedat YK. Hypertension in sub-Saharan African populations. Circulation. 2005;112(23):3562-8.

Tesfaye F, Byass P, Wall S. Population based prevalence of high blood pressure among adults in Addis Ababa: uncovering a silent epidemic. BMC Cardiovascular Disorders. 2009;9(1):39.

Hosmer DW, Lemeshow S. Applied survival analysis, John Wiley & Sons. Inc. New York; 1999.

Collett D. Modelling survival data in medical research. Chapman and Hall, London; 2003.

Agresti A, Hitchcock DB. Bayesian inference for categorical data analysis. Statistical Methods and Applications. 2005; 14(3):297-330.

Robert C. The Bayesian choice: from decision-theoretic foundations to computational implementation. Springer Science & Business Media; 2007.

Gill J. Bayesian methods: A social and behavioral sciences approach. Chapman and Hall/CRC; 2008.

Seyoum D, Degryse JM, Kifle Y, Taye A, Tadesse M, Birlie B, Banbeta A, Rosas-Aguirre A, Duchateau L, Speybroeck N. Risk factors for mortality among adult HIV/AIDS patients following antiretroviral therapy in Southwestern Ethiopia: An assessment through survival models. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2017; 14(3):296.

Cappuccio FP, Micah FB, Emmett L, Kerry SM, Antwi S, Martin-Peprah R, Phillips RO, Plange-Rhule J, Eastwood JB. Prevalence, detection, management, and control of hypertension in Ashanti, West Africa. Hypertension. 2004;43(5):1017- 22.

Seifu W, Hussein M, Ibrahim M, Sigale A. Behavioral risk factors of hypertension among pastoral and agro pastoral adult communities, Eastern Ethiopia, Somali Regional State. J Trop Dis. 2017;5(1):1- 6.

Meshram II, Laxmaiah A, Mallikharjun RK, Arlappa N, Balkrishna N, Reddy CG. Prevalence of hypertension and its correlates among Adult Tribal Population (≥ 20 years) of Maharashtra state, India. Int J Health Sci Res. 2014;4(1):130-9.

El Bcheraoui C, Memish ZA, Tuffaha M, Daoud F, Robinson M, Jaber S, Mikhitarian S, Al Saeedi M, AlMazroa MA, Mokdad AH, Al Rabeeah AA. Hypertension and its associated risk factors in the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, 2013: A national survey. International Journal of Hypertension; 2014.

Bonsa F, Gudina EK, Hajito KW. Prevalence of hypertension and associated factors in Bedele Town, Southwest Ethiopia. Ethiopian Journal of Health Sciences. 2014;24(1):21-6.

Reddy SS, Prabhu GR. Prevalence and risk factors of hypertension in adults in an Urban Slum, Tirupati, AP. Indian Journal of Community Medicine. 2005; 30(3):84.

Esaiyas A, Teshome T, Kassa D. Prevalence of hypertension and associate risk factors among workers at Hawassa University, Ethiopia: An institution based cross sectional study. J Vasc Med Surg. 2018;6(354):2.

Kishore J, Gupta N, Kohli C, Kumar N. Prevalence of hypertension and determination of its risk factors in rural Delhi. International Journal of Hypertension; 2016.

Khan RJ, Stewart CP, Christian P, Schulze KJ, Wu L, LeClerq SC, Khatry SK, West KP. A cross-sectional study of the prevalence and risk factors for hypertension in rural Nepali women. BMC Public Health. 2013;13(1):55.

Andualem MA, Hassen TS, Yemane T. Effect of khat (Catha edulis Forsk) on blood pressure & heart rate, a community based study. Ethiopian Journal of Health Development. 2002;16(3):325-34.